Today, we are seeing natural disasters hit all over the United States. There are devastating floods in Tennessee, fires across the west destroying trees, property and wildlife, and hurricane damage is being seen across the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
In 2020 $11 billion of damages were seen across the midwest from the derecho. 850,000 acres of crops were destroyed.
Already in 2021, $40 billion in insured damage from natural disasters has been reported world-wide. The 2021 damage so far is above the 10-year average of $33 billion. The only other year with more costly damage was 2011, when earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand sent the six-month total to $104 billion.
Swiss Re, a global insurance and reinsurance company, said the increased cost of natural disasters can be attributed to climate change. Climate change is causing a rise in temperatures, sea levels and weather extremes.
Iowa lawmakers can help with these catastrophic prices. They can extend solar tax credit, which gives intensive to use efficient renewable energy. Iowa also has not completed a baseline study of buildings’ compliance with energy efficiency standards since 2011. These are ways Iowa can help with problems caused by climate change. With the increase in costs worldwide, these costs are bound to hit average American families if nothing is done about it.
Climate crises around the world are occurring. Last week Zhengzhou, China experienced catastrophic floods that accumulated the amount of rain normally expected in a year, in just 72 hours. Already 63 people have been found dead, and irreversible damage has been made on buildings, roads and houses. These floods are being called by some- once-in-a-thousand-year floods.
China is not the only place experiencing flooding. Europe is also seeing deathly flooding in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. In Germany, at least 158 people are missing, and in Belgium 18 people are missing. These floods have killed at least 205 people in Europe.
On the other end of crises, fires are rapidly destroying areas in Oregon and Canada. Oregon’s fire, which is being referred to as the Bootleg fire, is so far the third largest fire in United States history. 67 homes have been destroyed, and 2,500 people were advised to evacuate their area.
In Canada, even more people were evacuated and entire villages have been burned. Two weeks ago, British Columbia declared a state of emergency. The wildfire smoke become so thick that many places in Canada issued air quality warnings. Those in areas not burning were still greatly affected.
The Iowa Flood Center will celebrate its 10th anniversary on Thursday, June 13 at the C. Maxwell Stanley Hydraulics Laboratory from 8:30 am to 4 pm. The Iowa Flood Center invites friends, partners, and the public to take part in a day-long celebration to celebrate this ten year milestone. The day’s events include; presentations, tours, hands-on activities and more.
Social Hour and Flood Panel Discussion at the Big Grove Brewery
A social hour and flood panel discussion will take place starting at 4:30 pm at the Big Grove Brewery. The flood panel will be moderated by Erin Jordan, a Cedar Rapids Gazette investigative reporter.
The event panelists include:
• Wiltold Krajewski: One of the world’s most respected experts in rainfall monitoring and forecasting using radar and satellite remote sensing. He is a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Iowa College of Engineering and faculty research engineer at IIHR—Hydroscience & Engineering.
• Larry Weber:Co-founder of the Iowa Flood Center and former director of IIHR. He is a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Iowa.
• Rob Hogg:State senator from Cedar Rapids, Iowa that represents portions of southwest, southeast and northeast Cedar Rapids. Senator Hogg has worked alongside legislators to pass legislation to assist Iowans with flood recovery and investing in flood protection, as well as helping establish the Iowa Flood Center.
• Rick Wulfekuhle: Buchanan County emergency management coordinator since 1997. Wulfekuhle has coordinated 14 Presidential Disaster Declarations and is passionate about bringing awareness to flood safety and procedures.
The panelist will gather to talk and share their knowledge and ideas about the recent floods affecting the Midwest and how the Iowa Food Center is helping the communities become better prepared for more flooding.
People in Southwest Iowa suffered record-breaking flooding in mid-March thanks to the spring extreme rainfall and rapid snowmelt. Now, a second round of flooding is on the horizon, threatening those previously affected.
The saturation of the soil, a large amount of rain and the river flow are once again causing road and highway closures, county evacuations and major floods warnings around the southwest part of the state.
According to the National Weather Service, the Missouri River in Nebraska City measured approximately 22.5 feet, and it soon could reach critical stages of flooding. The Missouri River in Plattsmouth, Neb., was at 31.3 feet, and could soon reach the moderate flooding stage.
As rain continues to fall, residents from Mills County, Iowa, near the Missouri River, have been advised to evacuate the area for their own safety. In the meantime, almost 300 people have been under obligatory evacuation in the western portion of Fremont County.
The main concern of officials is not only the record-breaking rains and the rising river levels, but they are also concerned that the floods from early March, left the county with no protection against flooding, according to Iowa Public Radio.
These heavy rains have caused significant damage to the roads and interstates, the interstate highway 29 in Iowa and Missouri have closed for the second time due to the flooding; the first time was the flooding from early March, and now the road closes again after only two weeks of being repaired. Portions of highway 34 and highway 2 have also closed due to flooding.
The traveler Information encourages divers to check 511ia.org or call 800-288-1047 if they have any questions before traveling through the Midwest.
Experts advise people to stay cautious, and if they see roads with water over them, it’s best to turn around and find an alternate route, since it is impossible to guess how deep the water in the road could possibly be.
Natural disasters are enormously costly. The U.S. incurred an estimated $306 billion in physical damage from extreme weather events like hurricanes and floods in 2017 alone.
CGRER member Eric Tate, a professor in the University of Iowa geography department, quantifies disaster impacts in a bigger way.
“Looking at these impacts just by dollars affected may not really get at the true impact of how people are affected, how their livelihoods are affected,” he said.
Tate studies the social effects of disasters, with an emphasis on floods. Looking beyond physical damage, he determines how population characteristics like age, disability, education and poverty create social vulnerability to harm.
Listen to Tate explain social vulnerability in his own words.
Disaster impacts are typically distributed unevenly; certain groups suffer disproportionately due to social, political, economic and institutional inequalities. These processes may debilitate some households while neighbors go unaffected during the same storm.
Using mainly government disaster relief data, Tate has measured and mapped the social reality of disasters like 2012’s Hurricane Sandy. He’s currently examining 2015 flooding in South Carolina. His research aims to inform planning and policy by lending insight into how various population characteristics contribute to vulnerability.
“What is needed in this field is a bunch of studies looking at different disasters at different scales of analysis, looking at different variables, looking at different outcomes,” he said. “When you put them all together, now you start to get some generalizable understanding.”
Officials can use such analyses to help vulnerable populations before, during and after disasters with adjusted mitigation and primary response plans. The social dimension of sustainability is often underemphasized, but is crucial for implementing effective change.
“If we want to have sustainable futures but the gains aren’t equitably shared, then is that sustainable?” Tate asked.
Tate on the need for research into the spillover effects of disasters.
He sees several ways policymakers on all levels can more deeply embed equity into decision making. They can model vulnerability among their constituents themselves or look to academic research that does so. They can seek to be inclusive and involve a diverse cross section of the population early on in the decision making process.
Tate pointed to the National Environmental Policy Act as well, which requires the government to complete environmental impact assessments prior to undergoing all federally funded executive projects. He thinks a similar statute could mandate assessments of the far-reaching social consequences of such projects.
He also advised considering climate change in proactive disaster planning, as atmospheric carbon seems to amplify climatological weather events. In Iowa, flooding has already become pronouncedly more intense and will continue to get worse in coming decades.
“Regardless of your belief in climate change or not, we’re seeing changes in hydrological extremes,” Tate said.
Tate on how to help protect yourself and your community from flooding.
Intensified flooding will increase pressure on the already vulnerability and likely push some previously unaffected households beyond their coping capacities.
Tate calls for updated statistical analysis to better inform everyone from city planners to homeowners about risk and vulnerability in different areas. The 100-year floodplain of today may become the 50-year floodplain in 15 years, but flood maps are based on historical frequencies and do not reflect projections for the future.
“Trying to understand future risk based on past occurrences is likely to lead you to faulty conclusions,” he said. “We should be thinking maybe a little less probabilistically and a little more possibilistically.”
***This post is part of “CGRER Looks Forward,” a new blog series running every other Friday. We aim to introduce readers to some of our members working across a wide breadth of disciplines, to share what the planet’s future looks like from their perspective and the implications of environmental research in their fields. ***
For each 1°F of global warming, Earth’s atmosphere becomes four percent more saturated with water. This makes more moisture available to condense and fall down as precipitation. As a result, extreme floods are more likely to happen now than they were in the past. According to NOAA, 29 flood disasters that cost more than $1 billion each have happened since 1980. In Iowa alone, floods have caused more than $18 billion in damages in the last thirty years. That puts us in fourth place nationwide for the number of floods experienced since 1988.
The northeastern United States has seen a 55 percent increase in heavy precipitation events from 1958 through 2016, the sharpest increase in the nation, according to the report. The midwest follows close behind, with a 42 percent increase in heavy precipitation events.
Flooding has cost Iowa communities more than $18 billion in the last thirty years, and as the Mississippi and Cedar Rivers continue to swell this spring, Iowans may wonder how much they can expect to pay out on flood disasters in the future.
In recent years, scholars at the Iowa Flood Center have been working to predict just that. HAZUS, developed by the the Federal Emergency Management Agency, provides predictions of the economic impact various magnitudes and types of natural disasters might have across the United States. During 2017, Research Engineer and Assistant Professor Ibrahim Demir and graduate research assistant Enes Yildirim, combined HAZUS’ information on demographics, buildings and structural content with data from the Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS).
As a result, IFIS now offers flood loss and economic damage estimations for twelve communities in the state. These include Cedar Rapids, Cedar Falls, Des Moines, Fort Dodge, Iowa City, Independence, Kalona, Monticello, Ottumwa, Rock Rapids, Rock Valley, and Waterloo. HAZUS’ model makes it possible for users to not only view the overall economic damages to a community but also how much in damages individual buildings can be expected to accrue.
Iowa Flood Center researchers are working to expand this predictive model to other parts of the state. For now, users can use the following guide to learn more about the financial consequences of flooding in any of the aforementioned communities.
Ken Parks is the Missoula County Disaster and Emergency Services deputy coordinator. He said to the Associated Press, “If you live anywhere near a stream or waterway in western Montana you need to be prepared to leave your home. This is going to come earlier than we expected. We’re trying to get out ahead of this thing and get the message out that this could be a very dangerous situation.”
As the Northern Hemisphere enters warmer seasons where severe weather and flooding are more likely, it is yet to be seen whether 2018 will top 2017 as the most costly year for natural disasters ever.
Since 1980, the yearly average for natural disasters in the U.S. that cause more than $1 billion in damages has been 5.8 events. Last year, the country saw 16 such events, including three tropical cyclones, eight severe storms, two inland floods, a crop freeze, drought and wildfire. While this number technically ties with 2011, 2017 had more extreme weather as wildfires are tallied by region rather than single events, and last year brought more wildfires costing upwards of $1 billion than ever before.
The midwest U.S. saw at least two severe storms last year that caused more than $1 billion in damages, both of them in mid-June. Flooding associated with storms like these has caused some $13.5 billion in economic losses from 1988 to 2015 in Iowa alone, according to a recent op-ed by Iowa Flood Center Director Witold Krajewski. Midwesterners also faced early tornado outbreaks in 2017, which tore across the region in late February and early March. Both events cause more than $1 billion in damages.
The National Centers for Environmental Information point out that increased development in vulnerable areas like coastlines, floodplains and fire-prone areas are causing the increase in billion dollar disasters. Climate change plays a role too. They write,
“Climate change is also paying an increasing role in the increasing frequency of some types of extreme weather that lead to billion-dollar disasters. Most notably the rise in vulnerability to drought, lengthening wildfire seasons and the potential for extremely heavy rainfall and inland flooding events are most acutely related to the influence of climate change.”
The 2017 Water Year came to an end recently according to a report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (DNR).
The “water year” runs from September 30th through October 1st. Overall, the 2017 water year has been drier and a bit warmer than usual. The statewide precipitation average was about 32 inches, which is roughly 3.28 inches less than usual. Precipitation was around average during the winter months, but fell below normal during the summertime.
Temperatures in the state averaged 50.7 degrees Fahrenheit, which made 2017 the fourth warmest year on the Iowa DNR’s 144 year record. While temperatures were mostly typical during the growing season, they were higher than usual for most of the winter months. This year brought the second warmest November and the third warmest February on record.