Nicole Welle | August 20, 2020

New scientific research will make it easier to predict the path of devastating megastorms and enable communities to better prepare for flooding.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are megastorms that affect communities all over the world. They can be bigger than the size of England and travel over 600 miles over a period of anywhere from a few hours to two days. They often cause major damage to infrastructure and livestock, and severe flooding triggered by these storms can threaten human lives. In the Sahel region of Africa, MCSs have tripled in frequency since the 1980s due to global warming, according to an article published by the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH).

Until now, it was difficult to predict the path of MCSs. However, a new study conducted by the UKCEH found that land surface conditions affect the direction and intensity of megastorms after they form.

“It is well known that heat provides thunderstorms with great energy, but it was commonly thought that once they are moving, they were not affected by the state of the ground over which they travelled. However, we found that drier soils increased the intensity of an MCS mid-storm, affecting the amount of rainfall they release and also where they travel. Conversely, we found storms were often weakened over moister soils,” said lead author Dr. Cornelia Klein of UKCEH.

This new information has allowed scientists to develop online tools to forecast the path and strength of approaching storms – a breakthrough that will increase warning times for affected communities. It may also enable better decision making by town planners and farmers at the center of MCS hotspots and increase the resiliency of their economies.